Hi, I’m having trouble figuring out how to model a situation. It seems pretty simple; here’s an analog:
Imagine we want to know how many elves there are in a forest and how many modifications to the forest they have made. There are two modifications an elf can make: painting a rock or carving a tree stump. Each day, an elf can choose either to paint a rock or carve a tree stump. We can only partially observe the forest. If we see a lot of elves, we can infer that there will be a lot painted rocks or carved tree stumps or both. If we see a lot of painted rocks, we can infer there are lots of elves. If we are certain of the number of elves, then seeing a lot of painted rocks means there are fewer carved tree stumps.
We would create a variable
num_of_elves and each would have a binomial distribution leading to
Sorry for the long question for a simple model. Any pointers to any help would be appreciated.