I have some doubt about the concept for time series forecasting using probabilistic way.
Given a sample data with time in x-axis and speed error in y-axis.
In normal practice, we generate the predictions using sample posterior predictive, where
In this case, x_new refers to time and y_new refer to speed_error.
But my objective is to predict y_new based on y_current.
Another example like stock prediction case, our objective is to predict next day stock price based on price today.
So based on my understanding, y should refers to future value while x refers to current value.
Am I correct? please correct me if I am wrong.
Thank you very much